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The compute cost of the most expensive AI training run will reach roughly one billion dollars by 2025.

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my model predicts a maximum spend of 10^(6.5 + 1.25) = $10^7.75 (~$60 million) by 2025. This is roughly one OOM lower than Cotra’s best guess.

https://epoch.ai/blog/trends-in-the-dollar-training-cost-of-machine-learning-systemsextraction 0.80

One of the key parameters of the Bioanchors model is the compute cost for the most expensive training run at the start of the forecasting period (2025), in 2020 USD. Cotra’s best guess for this was $1 billion. The author's estimate is about one order of magnitude lower.

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Created by extractor · Aug 11, 2026. Every judgment on this page is accompanied by a reasoning trace.