trailUS early-career workers aged 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations saw a 16% relative employment decline since generative AI's widespread adoption
Generative AI is beginning to have a significant, disproportionate negative impact on entry-level workers in the US labor market
Generative AI adoption has so far had minimal effects on aggregate employment and wages
Generative AI chatbot adoption has had no detectable effect on worker earnings or hours within two years
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ADP measurement and robustness· for
The observed AI-related employment decline is robust to excluding technology firms and remote-work-amenable occupations
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Employment for less AI-exposed workers and more experienced workers in AI-exposed occupations has stayed stable or grown
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Pre-existing hiring slowdown· against
Hiring for AI-exposed occupations began declining before ChatGPT's release in November 2022
Job postings for the most AI-exposed occupations peaked in early 2022 and declined through that year
Unemployment risk in AI-exposed occupations began rising in early 2022, months before ChatGPT's release
assumed
ADP payroll data are broadly representative of overall US labor-market trends
claim · empirical · verifiableA factual claim that could be checked directly against observation or primary records.constitution →claim page ↗︎
US early-career workers aged 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations saw a 16% relative employment decline since generative AI's widespread adoption
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5depended on by
this rests on ↓
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