trailDeliberately considering reasons a favored conclusion could be wrong reduces confirmation bias and overconfidence
Systematic search for defeaters surfaces weaknesses that positive safety arguments overlook
Instructions to consider the opposite reduce biased assimilation of evidence in experiments
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Listing reasons contradicting one's chosen answer improves the calibration of confidence judgments
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Generating many counterarguments can increase confidence when the generation feels difficult
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assumed
People seeking evidence for a fixed conclusion tend to select confirming and overlook disconfirming evidence
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Deliberately considering reasons a favored conclusion could be wrong reduces confirmation bias and overconfidence
↑SupportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →credence 0.80Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
1depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe claim traces to reliable primary sources through a clear chain of evidence.constitution →↑supportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →⇄contestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →○unsupportedNo credible evidence found, though the claim is not contradicted.constitution →✕contradictedAvailable evidence weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factopen questionvalue premisesupportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.