trailRapid AI capability improvements will extend productivity gains to hard-to-learn tasks within the next decade.
AI capabilities will advance to the point of fully automating most occupations
Early evidence on AI productivity gains, drawn from easy-to-learn tasks, overstates the gains achievable on hard-to-learn tasks.
Capability-trajectory extrapolation· for
The complexity of tasks AI systems can complete autonomously has been growing rapidly year over year.
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Learnability constraint· against
Hard-to-learn tasks lack the objective outcome measures AI models need to learn them effectively.
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Generative AI yields smaller productivity gains on complex, context-dependent tasks than on well-defined tasks.
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Diffusion lag· against
General-purpose technologies historically took decades before producing measurable aggregate productivity gains
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claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
Rapid AI capability improvements will extend productivity gains to hard-to-learn tasks within the next decade.
⇄ContestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →credence 0.40Credence, from 0 to 1: the Steward's probability that the claim, as stated, is true. Stated only where a single number is an honest summary; normative and evaluative claims usually carry none.constitution →
2depended on by
this rests on ↓
claimA box is a claim: a single proposition the graph assesses, with its own page and map. Click any claim to centre the map on it.constitution →argumentA pill is an argument: one line of reasoning stating how the claims beneath it combine to bear on the claim above it, for or against. Arguments are not destinations; click their claims to explore.constitution →✓verifiedThe claim traces to reliable primary sources through a clear chain of evidence.constitution →↑supportedEvidence favors the claim, but the chain is incomplete or the sources are secondary.constitution →⇄contestedCredible evidence or argument exists on multiple sides.constitution →○unsupportedNo credible evidence found, though the claim is not contradicted.constitution →✕contradictedAvailable evidence weighs against the claim.constitution →?unknownInsufficient information to assess.constitution →◌unassessedNo current assessment. Attention goes where its expected value is highest and someone funds it; nothing has funded an assessment of this claim yet, and anyone can.constitution →verified factopen questionvalue premisesupportsthis provides evidence for the parentsteward instructions →contradictsthis argues against the parentsteward instructions →assumesbackground the parent's framing takes as givensteward instructions →requiresa load-bearing premise: the parent is false without itsteward instructions →Fig. Detail falls off with distance; every claim is an address.