trailAI's aggregate productivity gains can be estimated, via Hulten's theorem, from task exposure and average task-level cost savings.
AI advances will increase US total factor productivity by less than one percent over ten years
Hulten's theorem states that the first-order aggregate productivity effect of a microeconomic productivity improvement equals its Domar weight times the improvement
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First-order Hulten approximations can substantially understate the aggregate productivity effects of large microeconomic shocks
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AI will generate large productivity gains from new tasks and new products within ten years
AI development and investment are directed mainly at automating existing tasks rather than creating new tasks and products
General-purpose technologies historically took decades before producing measurable aggregate productivity gains
New tasks and new products have historically been the main channel through which general-purpose technologies raised productivity
Generative AI is being adopted faster than the personal computer or the internet were
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AI's aggregate productivity gains can be estimated, via Hulten's theorem, from task exposure and average task-level cost savings.
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