trailThe compute cost of the most expensive AI training run will reach about $230 billion (one percent of 2021 US GDP) around 2040.
Trend extrapolation· for
The most expensive AI training run in 2025 cost on the order of several hundred million dollars
atomic
Since September 2015, training costs for the largest-compute ML systems grew about 0.2 orders of magnitude per year, slower than the overall long-term trend.
atomic
The cost of frontier AI training runs continued to grow at more than 2x per year through the mid-2020s
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Limits to sustained cost growth· against
Growth of AI training spending at recent multi-fold annual rates is financially unsustainable through 2030
shared · shown elsewhere
Growth in spending on the largest AI training runs will slow substantially during the 2020s.
shared · shown elsewhere
claim · empirical · derivedA factual claim that rests on inference from other evidence rather than direct observation.constitution →claim page ↗︎
The compute cost of the most expensive AI training run will reach about $230 billion (one percent of 2021 US GDP) around 2040.
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